Aims: Brazil has the lowest malaria burden in 35 years. After being substantially reduced in last decades, its elimination depends on the understanding of transmission in a small number of areas where malaria still persists, such as the urban setting of Mâncio Lima, a Brazilian city located in the Amazon Basin.
Methods: Mathematical models can contribute to interpreting epidemiological patterns and can be used to guide public policies. It is generally recognized that individual heterogeneity impacts strongly the results of population models, but we still face a general inability to measure it. Here we propose a concrete way forward to estimate heterogeneity in malaria risk from incidence patterns in a local population.
Results and Conclusions: Considering such risk distribution, a mathematical model describing the transmission dynamics is proposed and used to interpret with greater accuracy, trials that aim to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions in a realistic setting.